I was talking to Nat Irons about Cyc, the computer program that for 18 years has assimilated facts and made assumptions about them so its programmers can affirm or correct them. Cyc makes assumptions based on the information available, pointing out human frailties. For example, several years ago, Cyc concluded that all US presidents die by assassination, because its history lessons had never included a story about a president who died any other way. Oops.

I said that today, Cyc might conclude, "You should almost never sell stock," because stock market analysts almost never issue a "sell" rating. Nat disputed this, so I looked up Adelphia Communications. This is the #6 US cable company that's facing bankruptcy because it's recently come out that it kept two sets of books, inflated subscriber data, and used company assets to loan billions of dollars to the owning Rigas family. It was delisted from Nasdaq on June 3rd, and it's clear that this company is done, at least in its current incarnation. Friday's closing share price as $0.30 per share on the OTC exchange, down from a 52-week high of $42.94, and down $0.36 from Thursday.

Adelphia's problem started in June, when the company fell off a $25 share price on bad news and never recovered.

So what do the analysts say about it? Follow the link at the top. As of today, only 20% of analysts tracking Adelphia say you should sell any stock. OK, sure, it's now $0.30 instead of $42, so what do you have to lose by holding it? Ah, but check the history. No analysts recommended selling Adelphia until this month. A month ago, eight of ten analysts rated it "buy" or "strong buy". Three months ago, when the news hit the fan, eight analysts rated it "strong buy" (at $25) and three recommended it as "buy." None even said "hold," much less "sell" or "sell now, you hapless loser!"

Insiders understand that "hold" means "sell now and run away before you go broke," and that the "sell" rating is just too impolite. So don't be surprised if Cyc thinks you should rarely sell stock. "Experts say you should only buy stock, not sell it." Wonder where it might get that idea?