Via Atrios, we find this link to fascinating new blog The Likely Story, where "Adam in MA" figured out the identity of the ambassdor sent to Africa to confirm that Iraq had tried to buy uranium from Niger. The man, now self-identified as Joe Wilson, reported back to the Vice-President's office that not only had were the documents forgeries, but also that Iraq had categorically not tried to buy any uranium from Niger. After receiving this report, the administratio continued to press the forged Niger documents as "evidence," and when the forgery was exposed, the administration said it had other, secret evidence proving the Niger link true. In fact, the most expert investigator it sent said that there was no Niger link, and the administration ignored it.

Right off the bat, Wilson has credibility, but it's more fascinating to look at public statements he made before the military action began. He correctly predicted that Saddam Hussein would go underground like Osama and Mullah Omar, and look at what else he said:

Wilson also warns that the Iraqi leader's popularity could revive if allied troops occupied Iraq: "We have to operate on the assumption that six months into this occupation of Iraq, the Iraqis may well be disenchanted with having the United States as their so-called 'liberators.' And Saddam may actually become much more popular for them than he is currently."

Ridiculous? Check out today's Reuters story:

The mortar attack on Sunday night was the fifth in Ramadi in seven days, said Calvert. Rocket-propelled grenades have been the weapons of choice in recent weeks.

The U.S.-backed mayor's office was also hit by small arms fire and then grenade attacks a few minutes later, Calvert said.

U.S. troops are not taking any risks. They sit sideways in their vehicles with M-16 rifles ready for any assailant on the grim streets of Ramadi.

At the entrance of a heavily fortified palace complex once owned by Saddam, U.S. troops watched a truck tow a jeep with multiple bullet holes in its windshield.

"We want Saddam. Look what the Americans are doing. They are killing us. The attacks on Americans will get worse. It will be Jihad (holy war),'' said Yassin Mishaal.

Hmmm.