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Sooners in Pasadena?

The Bowl Championship Series is complicated because it serves too many constituencies. It has to please four huge bowl games, six conferences, Notre Dame, and ABC Sports. (Yes, that's correct: the BCS is administered by the heads of the six conferences plus the Notre Dame Athletic Director. That's why there's a special rule that if any non-conference team finishes in the top six of the BCS Rankings, Notre Dame automatically gets a BCS berth if it wins nine games or finishes in the BCS top 10.) Each of the four BCS bowls has nominal conference tie-ins: 
Sugar:	SEC
Rose:	Big Ten, Pac 10
Orange:	ACC, Big East
Fiesta: Big 12
The Orange Bowl is different: it gets either the ACC or Big East champion, but does not have to pick both. If one of those two teams is not available (because it goes to a title game instead), the Orange Bowl can say, "Oh, that's the one we wanted" and then pick whatever two of the BCS teams it can get. The Fiesta Bowl is the national title game this year. Under BCS rules, the bowl that loses its conference tie in because it was #1 in the BCS gets to pick a replacement first, followed by the bowl that loses its #2 team. Then the remaining slots are picked from unallocated conference champions, then the two at-large teams. As of today, three BCS slots are clinched: Ohio State as Big 10 champion, Florida State as Big East champion, and Miami as Big East champion. The SEC champion will either be Arkansas or Georgia; the Big XII champ either Colorado or Oklahoma, and the Pac 10 champ either Washington State or USC. Let's take a wild guess and say Miami wins against Virginia Tech on Saturday. That puts the known bowl slots thusly: 
Fiesta:  Miami vs. Ohio State
Sugar:   SEC champ vs. TBD
Orange:  TBD vs. TBD
Rose:    TBD vs. Pac 10 champ
Here's where it gets bizarre. USC is the #4 team in the BCS rankings now that Oklahoma has lost to Oklahoma State (Georgia will be #3). Under BCS rules, finishing as #3 or #4 as a non-conference champion guarantees you a spot in a BCS bowl. If Georgia loses, USC would be #3 (USC is done with its schedule, having beaten Notre Dame on Saturday). Either way, USC is in the BCS. However, if Washington State beats UCLA on Saturday, Washington State is the Pac 10 champion. Both WSU and USC will have 7-1 conference records, and USC's only loss is to WSU, so WSU wins the tie-breaker. That mandates Washington State's trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, but more importantly, it leaves only one BCS at-large berth left. The Orange Bowl will claim Miami as its tie-in as Big East champ, because it then immediately "loses" Miami to the Fiesta Bowl since Miami is #1 in the BCS. The Orange Bowl then gets first choice at picking any BCS-eligible team it wants to fill that slot, and the Orange Bowl is going to pick Notre Dame. It's the first time Notre Dame is BCS-eligible in a few years, and Notre Dame has a nationwide following. Both the Orange and Sugar Bowls want Notre Dame, but the Orange Bowl will use its Big East tie-in to guarantee first pick. That, however, fills all eight BCS slots: 
Fiesta: Miami vs. Ohio State
Sugar:  SEC champ vs. TBD
Orange: Notre Dame vs. TBD
Rose:   TBD vs. Washington State
The three "TBD" teams are the Big XII champ, Florida State (ACC champ), and USC (at-large). The Rose Bowl gets next pick of these three, since it loses BCS #2 Ohio State (Big 10 champ) to the Fiesta Bowl. Jerry Palm at CollegeBCS.com (have I recommended this site enough yet?) makes a big deal about how royally pissed the Rose Bowl will be at this. The Rose Bowl wants Iowa as Big 10 co-champs (Iowa did not play Ohio State this year and Ohio State gets the BCS bid since it's more highly ranked), but Iowa can only be an at-large team. With USC getting one slot, the Orange Bowl picks Notre Dame for the second, and the Rose Bowl has no Big 10 team to play against Washington State. The Rose Bowl can pick Florida State, but that's a cross-country trip for the Seminoles and their fans. Don't kid yourself -- at 9-4, FSU would be blessed beyond imagination to get to the Granddady of Bowl Games, but it probably wouldn't be a good game, and FSU probably wouldn't bring that many fans clear across the US. It could also pick USC, but that would put two Pac 10 teams in the Rose Bowl in a rematch of a regular season game that WSU already won. It might be nice revenge for USC, but would it draw ratings or national interest? Colorado or Oklahoma, though, particularly Oklahoma, might be different. Oklahoma and WSU were #3 and #4 for most of November in the BCS. It's likely that Oklahoma will stay ranked ahead of Washington State in the BCS this week, even as a two-loss team. Either team is likely to bring more fans than FSU and more interest than USC. And remember, this is the Rose Bowl's only option: CU or OU, FSU, or USC. Jerry Palm thinks Colorado will go to the Rose Bowl against Washington State. I'm not convinced Colorado will win, though as the OU 28, OSU 38 story shows, I'm not convinced OU will win either. I'm only convinced OU can win. The loser of the Big XII Championship, however, is almost certainly headed to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on December 27, a rough trip for anyone but the team. Jerry Palm says the rules that keep Iowa at #5 out of the BCS will only make the Rose Bowl, Big 10, and Pac 10 drop out of the BCS when the current contract is up. I'm not so sure. Yeah, the Rose Bowl is pissed, but the Big 10 and Pac 10 want in the BCS. WIthout the BCS, there's no way Ohio State could have played Miami this year. If Ohio State wins, the Big 10 will love the BCS for many years. The Pac 10 has justifiable reason to be pissed because the computer rankings, all eastern-biased, kept Oregon out of the title game last year when Oregon was clearly a superior team to Nebraska. Putting the Big XII champ in the Rose Bowl depends on Miami and Washington State both winning. If Miami loses, it's still guaranteed a BCS berth, but won't be going to the Fiesta Bowl. Then Ohio State would be BCS #1 and the Rose Bowl would pick an at-large team first, and it would pick Iowa. If Washington State loses to UCLA, then USC is the Pac 10 champion and doesn't take one of the at-large spots. The Orange Bowl would pick Notre Dame, but the Rose Bowl picks next and would pick Iowa. The Tournament of Roses folks just have to hope that Miami, WSU, and Georgia don't all lose on Saturday. That would make the national title game Ohio State vs. USC -- Big 10 champs vs. Pac 10 champs -- in the Fiesta Bowl, not the Rose Bowl. It would be the first time in many, many years that #1 vs #2 would meet from those two conferences and, thanks to the BCS, they'd do it in Tempe, while the Rose Bowl only got last year's Miami-Nebraska rout during its turn with the title game. That would induce some aneurysms in Pasadena. If Miami and WSU both win on Saturday, it fills out this way: 
Fiesta: Miami vs. Ohio State
Sugar:  SEC champ vs. FSU or USC
Orange: Notre Dame vs. FSU or USC
Rose:   Big XII champ vs. Washington State
All of these bowls are fantastic bowls for everyone involved, but the Rose Bowl is special because it's been closed to all but 20 teams since 1947, when the Big 10 and Pac 10 (originally Pacific Coast, then Pac 8) contract started. Even in the BCS era, the Rose Bowl has invited only Big 10 and Pac 10 teams until hosting the title game last year, when Miami and Nebraska became the first "outsiders" to play in the bowl in 54 years. If the Rose Bowl does pull out of the BCS, a Big XII team probably won't get in again for many many years. I don't like Iowa getting left out of Pasadena despite being Big 10 co-champs, but if OU could go to Pasadena, that would be a most amazing experience. Of course, the final BCS selection rule is that "the bowls, conferences, and ABC can do whatever they agree to do." It's just that picking Iowa over USC would require deliberately bending the BCS rules to screw the #4 team to please the Rose Bowl, and I don't see that happening. There could be "Glory Colorado" or "Boomer Sooner" heard in Pasadena on New Year's Day. That would be very, very cool.

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